Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

Integrated system of occupational safety and health and fire protection of the fire rescue brigades members

The objective of the conducted research is the identification and determination of requirements of members of fire rescue brigades during operations in the conditions of high risk in order to minimize the possibilities for injury incidence during the intervention. The research is focused on examination, determination and identification of factors affecting the increasing number of occupational injuries of members of fire rescue brigades during interventions. Hypothetical framework of the research problem consists of general hypothesis and six special hypotheses. Results suggest that almost all respondents believe that their skills and abilities are applicable in the intervention phase, but less than a half believe that their skills are applicable in prevention phase. Two-thirds of respondents stated that in their organization they have support for further education and upgrading while a half of respondents stated that they need education concerning identification, assessment and management of risks that can lead to emergency situations.     

Teamwork skill assessment: Development of a measure for academia

Popular teamwork assessments have been strongly criticized on the grounds of poor psychometric properties and their disconnect with conceptual models of teamwork. These issues raise concerns with respect to our ability to evaluate efforts devoted to advancing teamwork in academia. We report the development of a teamwork assessment that builds on empirically supported conceptualizations of team processes. Two studies were conducted to test and to cross-validate the psychometrics of the resulting measure. In the discussion section, we address the implications of our findings for conceptual models of teamwork and provide guidelines for using the measure in business education.     

Predicting credit card delinquencies: An application of deep neural networks

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it develops a prediction system to help the credit card issuer model the credit card delinquency risk. Second, it seeks to explore the potential of deep learning (also called a deep neural network), an emerging artificial intelligence technology, in the credit risk domain. With real-life credit card data linked to 711,397 credit card holders from a large bank in Brazil, this study develops a deep neural network to evaluate the risk of credit card delinquency based on the client's personal characteristics and the spending behaviours. Compared with machine-learning algorithms of logistic regression, naive Bayes, traditional artificial neural networks, and decision trees, deep neural networks have a better overall predictive performance with the highest F scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The successful application of deep learning implies that artificial intelligence has great potential to support and automate credit risk assessment for financial institutions and credit bureaus.     

The equity impacts of bus rapid transit: A review of the evidence and implications for sustainable transport

The paper offers an analysis of empirical evidence on the equity impacts of operational Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems in the Global South. The focus is on vertical equity, i.e. whether BRT systems achieve progressive benefits for poorer segments of the population. Findings from Africa, Asia, and Latin America all suggest that BRT does offer significant benefits to low-income groups, in terms of travel time and cost savings, access enhancement, and safety and health benefits. However benefits are often skewed toward medium-income users and thus less progressive than they might be. Two primary reasons for this are insufficient spatial coverage and inappropriate fare policies. While many features of BRT potentially allow it to deliver pro-poor outcomes, such outcomes only materialize if BRT implementers pay specific and sustained attention to equity. The paper identifies key issues that need to be addressed to steer BRT implementation toward more socially sustainable outcomes—including better integration with other transit, paratransit, and nonmotorized transport services, and with the housing sector.     

The role of assessment centers in job satisfaction and organizational commitment: a case of the Korean government

While many studies have shown how assessment centers affect employees’ career success or job performance, these studies do not demonstrate how employees’ attitudes are affected by their perception of assessment centers. This study aims to investigate the influence of employees’ perception of assessment centers on their job satisfaction and organizational commitment, which are the key elements in predicting working behaviors, such as job performance, job involvement, and turnover intentions. To analyze the nature of the influence, 306 employees who had been evaluated by an assessment center in the Korean Rural Development Administration (KRDA) were surveyed. Regression analysis revealed that although there is no influence on their organizational commitment, employees with a positive perception of assessment centers experience higher levels of job satisfaction (p < .01). These results suggest that the positive perception of assessment centers affects the general feeling of organizational members about their work even though it does not affect their emotional attachment to the organization or dedication to organizational values. Thus, assessment centers can be used as a tool not only to select capable candidates but also to yield positive effects on organizational members’ job attitudes.     

科学、价值与判断在环境影响评估架构中之整合

公共政策研拟，尤其是环境影响评估，不仅牵涉技术性科学层面，同时涵盖社会性价值评估与政策性决策判断。旨在探讨如何将科学、价值与判断等因素合理融合于环境影响评估作业过程中，并据此研拟一环境影响评估架构，作为中国台湾地区环保部门开发案审核依据之参考。本文所研拟之环境影响评估架构的理论基础包括社会选择理论、社会判断理论及多属性评估方法。通过社会选择理论分析环境政策制定的机制；通过社会判断理论解释科学与价值如何整合于政策制定及其可行性中；而通过多属性评估方法建立开发案评选的集体决策技术。以山坡地开发为例说明此架构在实践中的应用。     

Dynamic management of aircraft stand allocation

This paper aimed to present an original approach for solving the aircraft stand allocation (SA) problem dynamically when due to operational disturbances, the planned allocation cannot be accomplished. The proposed Multiple-criteria Dynamic Stand Allocation (MDSA) method uses fuzzy logic to support decision-making under uncertainty. The MDSA method provides effective solutions in a short time, necessary for traffic management in case of delays, emergency, and untypical cases. It considers partially conflicting points of view of different airport users (airport managers, air traffic controllers, airlines, handling agents, and passengers) and may significantly support managers on the SA problem. The approach proposed can also be used for creating an initial SA plan for a considerable number of aircraft.     

Too-Big-To-Fail: Why Megabanks Have Not Become Smaller Since the Global Financial Crisis?

ABSTRACT

More than ten years after the global financial crisis, what has happened to the ‘too-big-to-fail’ (TBTF) banks whose reckless behavior was among its preconditions, but which received public support and guarantees in the midst of that crisis? Insofar as this too-big-to-fail status helped create the crisis and then imposed costs on the rest of society, we would expect these banks to have shrunk. We investigate the evolution of 31 global-TBTF banks and find that their overall size has hardly recorded any substantial change. However, there is no sense of urgency in the flourishing post-crisis literature on TBTF banks about the need to contain their size; the prevalent view therein is that if properly regulated, the risks that arise from a financial system dominated by TBTF banks are manageable. This view rests on the same overly narrow theoretical underpinnings whose flaws were exposed in the crisis. We argue that too-big-to-fail banking is embedded in a set of self-reinforcing policies—consolidation, balance-sheet support through quantitative easing, favorable regulations, bank lobbying, and geo-economic and geo-political considerations—which explain why these banks have not shrunk and why they remain a threat to financial stability, well after the lessons of the crisis should have been learned.     

The innovative bureaucrat: evidence from the correctional authorities in Washington State

Bureaucracies are usually regarded as inefficient, wasteful mechanisms. Contrary to this deeply rooted perception of bureaucracy, this paper documents the case of the correctional authorities in Washington State, a bureaucracy that acted with a considerable degree of innovation and professionalism. Their task was to administer a risk assessment instrument that measured the level of risk posed by offenders by way of a numerical score. They used that score to identify the level of supervision offenders were to receive once released into the community. In analyzing the data, I discovered an unusual application of the instrument that resulted in many offenders being bumped to a higher supervision level. Using a regression discontinuity design, I uncover the mechanics of the bumping-up process and I generate an instrument that is cleansed of the manipulation. I find that the manipulated instrument predicts serious recidivism events better than the cleansed instrument, especially when these events involve high-risk offenders, thus providing evidence that the authorities had good reason to undertake the manipulation.